The folding screen price will go down and the straight plate machine dislocation competition

Still remember in 2018 Royole released the first folding screen products, I was directly amazed at a glance, there is a guanidane ⒙ moran polyester device some yu  liquid bamboo αΓ pen benzene chant  dough, palm NE ark ark. � Folding screen mobile phone in my heart directly set up a high-end product image.

In the following years, many domestic manufacturers followed up, OPPO, vivo, Honor and so on have launched their own folding screen products. But before 2023, you can rarely see a foldable phone with a price that can come below 4,000 yuan. Most new foldable screens are on their way to $10,000.

I still remember in a meal chat, a friend saw my folding screen mobile phone, curious to ask me how much, I said more than 10,000. He didn't look surprised, but had gotten used to the amount. But he then asked me a question stumped me, he asked me whether it is possible that one day the folding screen will also become a cabbage price, hundreds of dollars can buy. In my reflection for a few minutes, I told him: as long as the mainstream straight plate machine has not become a cabbage price for a day, the folding screen mobile phone must not become a cabbage price.

This is because foldable phones naturally have one more screen and one more hinge than straight phones. And because the status quo of hinge technology in the supply chain is still being updated, the production cost of folding screen products is still high. But that doesn't mean folding screen products won't get cheaper.

In 2019, the price of a folding screen mobile phone product released by a large manufacturer is 16,999 yuan, but only four years later, the price of the cheapest large folding screen product, Honor V Purse, has come to the price range of 5000 on the third-party platform, which is less than half of the mainstream products four years ago. The portrait folding screen is even more outrageous, and the cheapest moto Razr 40 can be bought for more than 3,000.

(IDC folding screen shipment data)

In 2024, I think that with the cost of hinge technology, screen and other parts falling, shipments continue to rise (2019 foldable screen shipments 200,000 units, 2022 3.4 million units, 2023 is about 5 million units), the price of foldable screen mobile phone products will continue to decline. More horizontal folding screen products are expected to come to the price segment of 4000 yuan to 5000 yuan, and the smaller vertical folding screen phone may enter the price segment of 2000 to 3000 yuan. It can be said that these two price ranges are the core shipping price segment of straight mobile phones.

(Honor folding screen phone)

But I boldly predict a wave, although the price of the folding screen phone will be reduced, but compared with the same price of the flat phone, it will lack some of the configuration of the flat phone, such as chip performance, rear image system, charging rate, etc., 2024 will be the same price of the folding screen phone and the flat phone "dislocation competition".

AI large model has become a new air port in the industry

In 2023, major mobile phone manufacturers have released their own AI large model matrix. For example, at the vivo Developer conference on November 1, 2023, vivo Blue Heart large model was officially introduced, this model I have tried, AI writing, AI mapping really have something. In addition, at the Snapdragon Summit, Honor announced that the Honor Magic6 series will be equipped with the third-generation Snapdragon 8 mobile platform, and also officially announced that it will support 7 billion parameters of the end-side AI large model. Finally, OPPO also officially announced that the first end-to-end application 7 billion parameter large model will be first applied on the Find X7 series.

(OPPO AI Large model)

Then there may be users here who will have questions, what is the AI big model? Here I also briefly and everyone popular science, that is, you can use this model to help users do something that takes a lot of effort to achieve, of course, it may be some inaccurate, but I understand it so. All in all, I think it can also be expressed in a sentence: "Big data, big models, big computing power, big ability!" A real smartphone must have the blessing of a large AI model.

(vivo Blue Heart large model)

At present, in the flagship products of many mobile phone manufacturers, they support the AI large model function, but unfortunately, some old products will be permanently absent from this function because of hardware reasons, and AI computing needs strong performance support. The latest high-speed Snapdragon 8Gen3 chip is also tested for the model of 10B, which can be generated at the fastest rate of 30tokens per second in the mobile phone. In the flagship mobile phone products released in 2024, the AI large model that the old products do not have is definitely one of the most attractive features for consumers, and may usher in a wave of mobile phone replacement. Of course, the premise of these results is that large AI models can actually help users solve problems.

(Honor AI large model)

Personally, I still hope that in 2024, major manufacturers can help AI models and mobile phone hardware and software cooperate with each other, bringing better industry development prospects, so that more users can benefit from the development of AI technology. Especially for elderly users and children, let the AI large model improve the convenience of elderly users to use mobile phones, reduce learning costs, and achieve on-call use; Liberate children's thinking and imagination, people-oriented, the industry can develop upward. With the protection of user privacy and security, it brings faster response, stronger processing power, and higher quality local AI experiences.

Satellite communication technology is in full bloom

When mobile satellite communication technology was first introduced, I thought it would be very useful, although the upper limit varies from person to person and depends on local conditions. However, in the consumer price segment of high-end mobile phone products, this kind of high-end communication technology is bound to attract people with consumer purchasing power.

In 2023, there will be few mobile phone products that support mobile satellite communication technology. But 2024 will be different, because satellite communications has become the next battleground for mobile phone manufacturers. As far as the current official news is concerned, Honor, vivo and OPPO have indicated that they will carry satellite communication technology in the new generation of flagship mobile phones.

Here are two examples, the Honor Magic6 series and OPPO Find X7 series that will be released soon will be equipped with satellite communication technology. Honor company developed Hongyan satellite technology, OPPO is through satellite antenna, pattern scheduling and other technologies to achieve satellite communication functions. In addition, ZTE, Jinxinuo, Shenglu Communication and many other listed companies have entered the mobile phone satellite communication industry chain.

In 2024, we will not only see satellite communication technology in many high-end mobile phones, but even in the second half of 2024, this technology will be decentralized to low-end mobile phone products, accelerating the market competition of satellite communication mobile phones. In general, mobile phone support for satellite communication technology will definitely become a trend in 2024, and even a mainstream. Besides, this technology is also good for the development of Beidou satellite in our country.

4G mobile phone phase-out 5G is widely available

Among the new mobile phones released by many mobile phone manufacturers in 2023, you will hardly see a mobile phone product that only supports 4G network. Of course, there is a brand exception, but after a strong return this year, it may also symbolize that it is difficult for us to see new 4G mobile phones in 2024.

(5G mobile phone)

After the 5G network was officially put into commercial use, it has been popular for several years, and 5G mobile phone chips have been adopted from the initial high level to the standard configuration of mobile phones today. On the one hand, it symbolizes the speed and breadth of China's 5G network base station coverage, and it also represents that these upstream chip manufacturers have slowly given up the production of 4G mobile phone chips. Now you only need to spend a few hundred yuan to buy a smartphone that supports 5G network on a second-hand platform.

(4G mobile phone)

However, it should be noted that the elimination of 4G mobile phones does not mean that 4G networks will be eliminated. In some areas that are not covered by 5G, we still need to use 4G or even 3G networks for mobile communications. However, as far as the current operators are concerned, they are still vigorously promoting 5G, and China Mobile even removed 4G packages some time ago. One of our domestic mobile phone manufacturers has even started testing 5.5G and 6G networks.

summarize

As far as the current momentum is concerned, the mobile phone industry will not enter the sunset stage. This is also because of the high degree of involvement of mobile phone users, strong demand, more or less there may be some sales fluctuations, but there is no obvious decline period. And with the continuous integration of the mobile phone industry and the automotive industry, the car will drive the mobile phone, and the mobile phone will also drive the smart automobile industry. I believe that in 2024, the mobile phone industry will most likely be in an upward positive energy "growth" stage, whether it is the speed of new releases, or mobile phone sales and so on.